The most recent Allianz Risk Barometer reveals a notable shift in the concerns of companies worldwide for the year 2024. Topping the list is the alarming prevalence of cyber incidents, which have emerged as the foremost worry. These incidents, encompassing ransomware attacks, data breaches, and IT disruptions, mirror the escalating threat posed by cybercriminals in the digital realm. Following closely behind is the specter of business interruption, emphasizing the intricate nature of contemporary global business operations.
One striking trend in this year's findings is the significant rise in natural catastrophes, soaring from sixth to third place year-over-year. Additionally, concerns over climate change, fires, explosions, and political risks have experienced noteworthy increases, highlighting the growing influence of environmental and geopolitical factors on business stability.
Petros Papanikolaou, CEO of Allianz Commercial, emphasizes the pressing need to address these risks, citing the anticipated challenges stemming from extreme weather events, ransomware attacks, and regional conflicts in 2024. He urges insurance stakeholders to remain vigilant and adapt coverage accordingly to mitigate potential losses.
Moreover, the report sheds light on a resilience gap between large corporations and smaller businesses, with larger entities demonstrating heightened risk awareness and a proactive approach to bolstering resilience. Conversely, smaller businesses often grapple with identifying and preparing for diverse risk scenarios, leading to extended recovery periods post-incidents.
The global trends shaping risk in 2024 are outlined as follows:
Cyber Incidents (36%): Maintaining its position as the top global risk for the third consecutive year, cyber incidents continue to reign supreme. Data breaches (59%) and attacks on critical infrastructure (53%) stand out as particularly alarming cyber threats.
Business Interruption (31%): Despite some relief from post-pandemic supply chain disruptions, business interruption remains a significant concern in 2024. Companies are prioritizing enhancements in business continuity management and the identification of supply chain bottlenecks.
Natural Catastrophes (26%): Climbing three positions to secure the third spot, natural catastrophes have garnered increased attention following a record-breaking year in 2023. The impact of extreme weather events on global supply chains adds to the heightened sense of apprehension.
The report also underscores regional and sectoral variances in risk perception:
Climate Change (18%): While maintaining its seventh position globally, climate change emerges as one of the top three risks in countries such as Brazil, Greece, Italy, Turkey, and Mexico. The potential for physical damage to corporate assets from extreme weather events poses a significant threat.
Political Risks and Violence (14%): Escalating geopolitical tensions have propelled political risks and violence to the eighth position. Societal polarization, exacerbated by economic uncertainty and disinformation, is expected to fuel increased social unrest in numerous countries.
Macroeconomic Developments (19%): Slipping to fifth place from third, macroeconomic developments are anticipated to stabilize somewhat in 2024. Global economic growth remains modest, with projections hovering just above 2%.
Shortage of Skilled Workforce (12%): Considered less of a global risk compared to 2023, the shortage of skilled workforce falls to the tenth position. Nevertheless, it remains a top-five business risk in Central and Eastern Europe, the UK, and Australia, particularly within the context of combating cybercrime.
In summary, the Allianz Risk Barometer underscores the ever-evolving and interconnected nature of global business risks, urging businesses to remain vigilant, adapt strategies, and fortify resilience measures in response to evolving threats.
